Safe Tokyo Predicted By Games Public Health Leader

(ATR) One of the creators of the Olympic public health structure is optimistic for Tokyo, saying another delay isn’t needed.

Dr. Brian McCloskey is a Senior Consulting Fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank. Before his current position, he took the lead role developing the public health services for the London 2012 Olympics. He has also consulted with Tokyo 2020, the IOC and the World Health Organization’s Mass Gatherings Advisory Group.

"With the science of mass gatherings, the risk is not as big as people think it is," McCloskey stressed in a recent phone interview with Around the Rings.

"It’s not zero and we’ve done it before," he said, attempting to assuage fears members of the Olympic Family may have in the lead-up to Tokyo.

"We can manage [the Covid-19 pandemic], with a good surveillance system. We know mostly how to manage it, but Covid has become such a big issue around the world it’s about not distracting people from the day job of managing the outbreak with Olympic planning."

As researchers continue to grapple with the new coronavirus, McCloskey also says there should be no consideration of a cancellation or another delay.

"It’s far too soon to make any decisions. Putting aside if we have a vaccine, [Japan] will do a lot."

McCloskey, a self-described optimist, focuses his public health expertise on communicable diseases. He also believes by the time the Tokyo Olympics begin next year, Covid-19 will have run its course as a pandemic.

"By the time we get to the July 2021 opening ceremony this will have gone away completely. By the time next year comes, even if we don’t have a vaccine, we’ll have more knowledge to understand the virus better."

Still, he predicts "it’s quite likely we’ll have some outbreaks" but overall, the resources will be in place to manage smaller, isolated outbreaks of Covid-19.

McCloskey stressed that he was not downplaying the risk of Covid-19 nor the severity of the disease. Looking ahead he said there doesn’t seem to any looming potential pandemics and even if there were: "It’s hard to think of another pandemic in 2021 that’s more scary than the coronavirus."

London 2012 was the first Olympic Games with a public health infrastructure integrated as strongly as it was. McCloskey says that was spurred by then-LOCOG Chief Medical Officer Dr. Richard Budgett, who is now the IOC Medical and Scientific Director.

Tokyo Olympic organizers have been keen students of London’s work. McCloskey says adopting multiple programs debuted in London.

"One of the lessons they took from London to Tokyo was a virus surveillance system that monitored hospital virus outbreaks, and that system detected the first coronavirus case in Tokyo," McCloskey claimed.

With a little less than a year until the Games, McCloskey still has advice for Japan: listen to the WHO, work with other countries to adopt best practices and ensure a robust public-health monitoring system is in place to be ready to go instantly. All things Japan can do, he believes.

"They are very determined that these Games will take place safely next year."

What specific controls should be in place for fans and athletes could also change between now and the opening ceremony as knowledge of the virus’ behavior continues to grow. The current coronavirus is a near-genetic match of the 2003 SARS coronavirus and similar to the 2012 MERS coronavirus. Both those offer clues to what next year may look like.

"If it's like SARS it will disappear and we'll never see it again--which i think is unlikely, said McCloskey. "It could be like MERS which causes a few outbreaks but it’s not as serious or it could come back in the winter and disappear in the summer."

To determine exactly how McCloskey assesses the risk Covid-19 poses to Tokyo, simply ask him if he plans to attend.

"I’m going."

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