Russia has appointed a new commander for its war in Ukraine after suffering severe setbacks in its invasion. This is 60-year-old Alexander Dvornikov, one of the most experienced Russian military officers and, according to US officials, a commander with a reputation for brutality against civilians in Syria and other war scenarios. There are those who even dare to call him “the Butcher of Syria”
The appointment of the Dvornikov Kremlin as the first link in the chain of command to lead the attack on Ukraine could bring greater coordination of the assault, although it also highlights that Russia did not have one man in charge of the entire invasion of Ukraine. According to CNN, based on US Department of Defense officials, each unit from different military districts was operating without coordination and, at times, for cross-purposes.
This strategic change would not only expect greater cohesion, but also more brutality.
Dvornikov, born in 1961 and initiated into the army of the Soviet Union, was in command of Russian troops in Syria between 2015 and 2016, during the offensive against jihadism and also against the rebel troops facing the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In that offensive, Russian planes bombed densely populated areas with a large presence of civilians, especially in Aleppo.
His role in that conflict led him to receive the title of Hero of the Russian Federation. In 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted him to the rank of general.
In the months when Dvornikov led the Russian campaign, it is estimated that there were almost 10,000 bombings, especially in Aleppo, Homs and other smaller towns. With this, he managed to break the will of civilians, after attacking basic infrastructures such as hospitals and water sources.
Sir Roderic Lyne, former British ambassador to Russia, told Sky News that Dvornikov has a “rather savage record in Syria to try to gain at least some territory in Donetsk” that could be considered an achievement for the Kremlin.
Harry Kazianis, US military analyst at the Center for National Interest, warned: “The move to empower it is a dangerous sign that Putin has no intention of surrendering in Ukraine anytime soon, but could actually try to take most, if not all, of eastern Ukraine.” In dialogue with the Telegraph, he considered that the general is an intelligent strategist who will not skimp on siege war tactics: “My fear is that Dvornikov has orders that if he cannot take eastern Ukraine he will turn him into a giant Aleppo.”
“Dvornikov is known as a ruthless commander and will deploy tactics used in Syria now in Ukraine. He was in Chechnya 20 years ago. It is about liberating cities by reducing them to rubble,” another military analyst from Moscow, who preferred not to be identified, told the Telegraph.
In recent weeks, Russian troops have announced a tactical retreat from Kiev and its surroundings, but Ukrainian leaders warn that this is a shift to focus on the Donbas region in the east of the country as the main battle front.
For his part, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that “no appointment of a general can hide the fact that Russia has already suffered a strategic failure in Ukraine.” In an interview with CNN, he explained: “This general will only be responsible for crimes and brutality against civilians in Ukraine.”
Meanwhile, a European official, on condition of anonymity, commented to CNN: “(The appointment of Dvornikov) speaks of a Russian recognition that things are going extremely badly and that they need to do something different.”
The Russian army, which has failed to capture any of the major Ukrainian cities, will be under pressure for results before May 9, the holiday on which the victory over Nazi Germany is celebrated in 1945 with a traditional parade led by Putin, who would seek to present some tangible result by then.
As Moscow claims that it is fighting the “Nazis” in Ukraine, this date allows us to draw a parallel with the victory of 1945, considering that history is another battleground of the Kremlin. However, analysts warn that rushing an offensive in the Donbas following a “political imperative” can lead to a “military disaster”. If the conquest of Donbas seems difficult before May 9, the capture of Mariupol, a large port city besieged at the price of a humanitarian catastrophe, could be presented as a substitute.
(With information from AP and AFP)
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