Sports Expert Says U.S. Will Lead Medal Count at Beijing Olympics

Luciano Barra says mathematics are behind his predictions. (ATR) (ATR) A well-known expert on Olympic sports predicts the United States will win the medal count at the Beijing Olympics – and he has the numbers to prove it.

According to Luciano Barra's latest projections -- which factor in the most recent World Championships in nearly every Olympic sport -- the U.S. will win 96 medals, including 45 gold, followed by China with 92 total medals (40 gold) and Russia with 88 total medals (32 gold).

Click to view Barra's tables, by country orby event (best viewed with IE).

Barra's analysis contradicts statements from USOC chief executive Jim Scherr, who has said, "It's no secret that we are more than an underdog" and that China is "blowing us out of the water in the gold-medal race."

Barra tells Around the Rings that he would expect the U.S. to say that China is favored as a motivational tactic for its athletes.

"I still think the U.S. will win the medal count because the U.S. is the U.S.," he said. "They are too strong in swimming and athletics. If they can keep the level of medals in those sports, it is too difficult" for any other country to win.

Barra's final update will come out in mid-December following the World Championships in women's handball, but isn't expected to change much.

Barra, the former director of sport for the Italian Olympic Committee (CONI) and deputy CEO of the Torino 2006 Organizing Committee, has been projecting the medal count for 10 years in both Summer and Winter Games and has already started his Vancouver projections. Hurdler Liu Xiang became a national hero in 2004 when he became the first man from China to win a track and field gold. (Getty Images)

Barra doesn't believe Olympic medalists come out of the woodwork. In his experience, past performances are an indicator of future success.

"It is statistical, a mathematical projection, not prognostic," Barra said.

Going into the 2004 Olympics, he was only 10-15 percent off the mark for every major country with the exception of the United States, which exceeded his expectations by winning 102 medals after he projected only 75.

Barra explains that discrepancy by saying the U.S. did not emphasize the world championships as much as it does now and has shown its commitment with increased funding for national federations.

For the Beijing projections, Barra used the Athens medal count as his benchmark, then substituted the medals as each world championships took place for "continuous updated projections."

He also crunches the numbers for athletes finishing in places four to 8. In the November projection, the U.S. leads all countries with 101 finalists, followed by Russia with 83 and China with 76.

"Twenty-five percent of those can win a medal," Barra said. "When I was director of sport in CONI, I always said if you invest in one of those athletes, between $50,000-100,000 in assistance and coaching, he can win a medal."

He added, "Of course, he can take a medal away from somebody else in his own country."

The United States has won the last three Summer Olympics medal counts and took home 102 medals in Athens, including 36 golds, nine fewer than Barra's Beijing projection.

In his December update, Barra will not only list the projections for each country, but will compare how they are doing in each sport and discipline with how they did in Athens.

"At the end of the day, if you want to win 100 medals, you need to win medals in a minimum of 15 sports out of 26," he said.

Barra does not think Chinese teams will include athletes who have never been seen before on the international stage and have not undergone drug tests - a prospect that has worried some U.S. swimming coaches. "I don't think they will risk trying to do tricky things," he said.

For his final tally, Barra has to determine how to rate doubles teams in tennis, since many pairings on the pro tour include players from different countries.

In boxing, he also will make a note of Cuba's absence from the World Boxing Championships, which recently concluded in Chicago. Germany's women brought home two golds and two silvers in rowing in 2004. (Getty Images)Cuba traditionally has won several medals in each Olympic boxing competition, but did not compete in Chicago to avoid the possibility of athletes defecting.

Barra foresees Germany, which was extremely disappointed by its sixth-place finish in the medal count in Athens (13 gold medals and 49 total) rising to fourth in the total medal count with 61. Great Britain, which won 30 medals in 2004, is projected to win 45, which Barra attributes to the motivation of hosting the 2012 Olympics.

"You can see the young people coming up," he said.

"This is part of their blood, part of their history." U.S. sprinter Allyson Felix won the 200m Olympic silver in 2004. (Getty Images)

The USOC made its medal target public before Salt Lake City and Athens, but will not announce a medal goal prior to Beijing, according to spokesman Darryl Seibel.

"We do have a goal internally," Seibel said. "We're very much aware of it, but we're not going to announce it publicly."

He said that the USOC decided not to release its figures because "the competitive landscape internationally is changing significantly," with countries such as China and Russia progressing rapidly. Also, he said, other countries are taking "a more vertical approach," targeting medals in specific sports.

For the years leading up to the Olympics, the USOC has "a range that we think represents what our potential is as a nation," Seibel said.

The USOC projections are based heavily on world championships and world cup performances through top 10 finishes and are a reflection of performance over a period of years, not just one year.

"It's fairly reliable," Seibel said. "It gives us a good benchmark to assess how we're doing."

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