After the failure in Kiev, Putin is betting on recruiting more Syrian mercenaries and fighters for his offensive in eastern Ukraine

Russia is striving to gather enough combat-ready reinforcements to carry out a new phase of the war, and for that it is recruiting Syrian mercenaries, according to US and other Western military and intelligence officials, according to information from The New York Times.

The Kremlin initially sent 75% of its main ground combat forces into war in February, according to Pentagon officials. But much of that army of more than 150,000 soldiers is worn out, after suffering logistical problems, declining morale and devastating casualties as a result of a tougher Ukrainian resistance than expected, military and intelligence officials told the US media.

According to The New York Times, there are relatively few new Russian troops to fill the gap. Moscow has withdrawn the forces — as many as 40,000 soldiers — it had deployed around Kiev and Chernihiv, two northern cities, to rearm and resupply in Russia and neighboring Belarus, before repositioning them probably in eastern Ukraine in the coming weeks, according to US officials.

The Kremlin is also sending to the east a mix of Russian mercenaries, Syrian fighters, new recruits and regular Russian army troops from Georgia and the far east of Russia.

“Russia still has forces that surpass those of Ukraine, and is now concentrating its military power on fewer lines of attack, but this does not mean that Russia will succeed in the east,” said Jake Sullivan, national security adviser to US President Biden on Monday.

“The next stage of this conflict may be prolonged,” he added, while stating that Russia will likely send “tens of thousands of soldiers to the front line in eastern Ukraine” and will continue to fire rockets, missiles and mortars on Kiev, Odessa, Kharkiv, Lviv and other cities.

US and European officials highlighted the errors and logistical problems of the Russian army, although they warned that Moscow's regrouping capacity should not be underestimated.

The Ukrainian army has managed to regain territory around Kiev and Chernihiv, attacking the Russians in their retreat; it has thwarted a ground attack on Odessa in the south and resisted in Mariupol. Ukraine receives T-72 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy weapons from the West, as well as Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

In anticipation of this next important phase of the war in the east, the White House announced on Tuesday that it will provide another $100 million in military aid to Ukraine, bringing US assistance to the European country to more than $1.7 billion since the Russian invasion began.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated in a note that he authorized by order of President Biden a further withdrawal of DOD devices “to meet Ukraine's urgent need for additional anti-weapon systems.”

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby specified that these are Javelin anti-weapon missiles, which the US has been supplying to Ukraine and with which he assured that the country has been defending itself “very effectively.”

The number of Russian casualties in the war is unknown so far, although Western intelligence agencies estimate between 7,000 and 10,000 and between 20,000 and 30,000 injured. Thousands more have been captured or are missing in combat.

The Russian military, according to Western and European officials, have learned the need to concentrate their forces, rather than disperse them.

Russia's best forces, its two airborne divisions and the First Guards Tank Army, suffered heavy casualties and an erosion of their combat power.

The British Ministry of Defense and the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank analyzing the war in Ukraine, reported on Tuesday that Russian troops withdrawing from Kiev and Chernihiv will not be able to deploy soon.

Russia's problems with finding additional troops are largely the reason why they have called hundreds of Syrian fighters, Chechens and Russian mercenaries as reinforcements.

The Chechen force, one of the European intelligence officials told The New York Times, is “clearly used to spread fear.” Chechen units are no better combatants and have suffered heavy losses. But they have been used in urban combat situations and for “the dirtiest kind of work,” the official said.

Russian mercenaries with experience in Syria and Libya are preparing to take an increasingly active role in a phase of the war that is now its top priority for the Kremlin: fighting in the east of the country.

The number of mercenaries deployed in Ukraine from the Wagner Group, a private military force with ties to Vladimir Putin, is expected to triple to at least 1,000 since the first days of the invasion, a senior US official told The New York Times.

Wagner is also moving to Ukraine the artillery, air defenses and radars he had used in Libya, the official said.

The transfer of mercenaries will be “counterproductive because these are units that cannot join the regular army, and we know that they are brutal violators of human rights, which will only turn Ukrainian and world opinion even more against Russia,” said Evelyn N. Farkas, the Pentagon's chief official for Russia and Ukraine during the administration of former US President Barack Obama.

Hundreds of Syrian fighters could also head to Ukraine, which would mean a return of favor to Moscow for having helped Bashar al-Assad crush the rebels in an 11-year civil war.

A contingent of at least 300 Syrian soldiers is already in Russia for regular training, but it is unknown whether they will be sent to Ukraine.

“They are bringing in fighters known for their brutality in the hope of breaking the Ukrainian will to fight,” said Kori Schake, director of foreign policy and defense studies at the American Enterprise Institute. However, he indicated that any victory for Russia would depend on the willingness of foreign fighters to fight.

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