Russian withdrawal from Kiev is likely to be limited and tactical

(Bloomberg) Russia's proposal to “fundamentally reduce” its military operations in northern Ukraine generated optimism about the possibility of a peace agreement, softening oil prices and boosting stock markets. However, there are compelling reasons to be cautious.

Russia's chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, presented the decision to withdraw from the capital, Kiev, and the northern city of Chernihiv as a measure of détente, but it is also likely to be tactical.

Not only has the Ukrainian Army been causing losses and recovering some of the territory around Kiev, but Russian commanders had already said they planned to reconcentrate their forces in the east, where they have made greater progress, and the city of Mariupol is in the final stages of a brutal collapse.

De-escalation does not mean a ceasefire or the complete withdrawal of troops from around the capital, said a person close to the Kremlin. Moreover, Russia continues to demand radical concessions that Ukraine is unlikely to accept.

“To some extent, it is disconcerting to see that markets are reacting so strongly,” Alexander Rodnianski, advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky, told Bloomberg TV after Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met Tuesday in Istanbul, Turkey.

“The only thing that will really bring them to the negotiating table is Ukraine's victory on the battlefield and increased economic pressure, in terms of sanctions,” he said.

United States shares this skepticism, as well as some military analysts who have monitored one of Europe's biggest security crises since 1945.

Two people close to the Kremlin, who asked not to be identified, exposed scenarios that do not involve Russia acting preventively to calm the conflict.

This even though it has suffered setbacks particularly in northern Ukraine.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine had recently reported the withdrawal of certain troops, the 106th paratrooper division and a combined arms battalion of Russia from near Kiev to Belarus, assuming they were being resupplied. Since then, video footage shows how units are loaded onto trains, suggesting a deeper withdrawal, according to Janes, the defense news agency. Relocation to the east is another possibility.

Russia's likely goals will now be to seize all of the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk, along with a land corridor from the Russian border to the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014, said one of the people familiar with the Kremlin strategy.

In total, that would require Ukraine to accept the permanent loss of about 20 per cent of its internationally recognized territory. Moscow would also demand Ukraine's neutrality, the preservation of the Russian military presence in certain areas and the right to inspect military infrastructure in other parts of the country, the person said.

An agreement could only be reached once the situation on the battlefield has been clarified in accordance with Russia's objectives, and it will probably also require a major defeat of Ukrainian forces, according to the second person close to the Kremlin.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's goals still extend far beyond Donbas, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters Tuesday. No one should be “deceived” by Moscow's suggestions that it will reduce attacks around Kiev or withdraw forces in the area.

Despite Tuesday's hopes that there could be enough common ground to organize a meeting soon between Zelenski and Putin, no date was set for the continuation of the talks as they were dissolved in Istanbul. There also seemed to be little immediate prospect of a ceasefire.

Original Note:

Russian Pullback From Kyiv Is Likely to Be Limited and Tactical

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.