Drought, a present and future challenge for Argentina's battered economy

Buenos Aires, 22 Mar Known as one of the world's “granaries”, Argentina is a world leader in the export of crops, a position that now faces a challenge for the present and future: the prolonged drought that is going through several areas of the country, especially in the northeast, where extreme temperatures have been added to a historical downspout of the rivers. The main causes of this phenomenon are changes in weather cycle patterns such as El Niño and La Niña, a direct consequence of climate change, as well as human-induced “aggressive deforestation”, according to Darío Soto-Abril, executive director of the World Water Association (GWP). “(Drought) affects not only the livelihood of those who produce, but the food insecurity of everyone in the region, because we do not have access to the products produced in Argentina (...). There is less production and scarcity will contribute to inflation that the region is experiencing due to global causes,” he says in a dialogue with Efe. ECONOMIC EFFECTS Argentina covers an area of more than 2.8 million square kilometers and drought is present, in different forms and degrees, practically throughout the country: from the Andes mountain range, through the Patagonian steppe to the Paraná river basin, one of the key points in crop production and export. Several problems coexist in the latter region, such as difficulties in transporting river cargo, the loss of electricity production and the growing precariousness of artisanal fishermen, according to Soto-Abril, which numbers some 4,100 families affected by the historic river downspout. In this regard, the “water stress” experienced during the summer of last year caused the projected harvest of soybeans and corn to fall by nine and eight million tons, respectively, causing losses of $2.93 billion in the agricultural sector, according to a report by the Rosario Stock Exchange. A decline in production that will have an estimated impact of $4.8 billion on the Argentine economy as a whole, equivalent to 1% of the country's potential GDP, which has been going through serious macroeconomic imbalances since mid-2018. IMPACT ON CROPS The water crisis conditions the production of all crops, especially those that, such as rice, require large amounts of water from natural sources such as rivers, dams or boreholes. This is noted by María Inés Pachecoy, an agronomist from the province of Corrientes (northeast), who suffered firsthand the confluence of an “extreme drought” and temperatures “six degrees” higher than usual at the beginning of the year. “In rice, since what is eaten is the grain that is harvested, all these conditions have a direct effect on the quality of what is going to come out, so it is expected that not only will there be fewer kilos, but that quality is probably not ideal,” says Efe Pachecoy, a member of the National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA). INTA itself produced, in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture, a map on Argentina's drought, which concluded that there are almost two million hectares of crops with “severe damage” in the northeastern part of the country, including the provinces of Corrientes, Misiones, northern Entre Ríos and eastern Chaco and Formosa. Faced with this reality, producers are resorting to increasingly common initiatives, such as reducing arable area, limiting irrigation to the maximum or using different varieties of grain. APPROACHES FOR THE FUTURE For the executive director of the GWP, climate change and its most obvious effects are a reality to which different governments must adapt through a “preventive” approach, with financial measures such as contingent bonds for the best use of water or loans tied to optimal soil treatment. “Prevention avoids incurring many costs, beyond money: the cost of the loss of life, of production, that you are not going to recover. That is why prevention is extremely important”, concludes Soto-Abril. E Javier Castro Bugarin