Luciano Barra says solid mathematics are behind his predictions. (ATR)(ATR) The final Beijing medal projection released by a noted expert on Olympic sports places nearly all of the countries that dominated the Athens medal count back at the top of the standings. However, some nations could see their rankings and medal tallies undergo dramatic changes.
Luciano Barra, the former director of sport for the Italian Olympic Committee, based his charts on results from the most recent World Championship or World Cup in each sport except tennis, where he used the last pro rankings of 2007.
Barra projects the United States remaining atop the medal standings for the fourth straight summer Games with a total of 98 medals, four fewer than in Athens. However, the 47 gold medals he attributes to the U.S. are an increase of 11 from 2004, while the 24 silver medals are a decrease of 15. U.S. swimmer Michael Phelps won four individual golds and two relay golds at the 2004 Games. (Getty Images)
Barra's full predictions are available by country or by sport.
Barra told Around the Rings that he doesn't think the tough U.S. Olympic Trials system, in which world champions still must compete to make the team in most sports, will affect the medal projections.
"If somebody who is world champion does not win or does not take part, somebody else from the United States will win," Barra said.
Host country China, which was the runner-up in gold medals in Athens with 32, is expected to raise its gold-medal output by only six, but its total medal count will surge from 63 to 89, an increase of 41 percent. Russia, third in the standings, also raises its gold medals from 27 to 32, but falls in total medals from 92 to 88. China will nearly dominate diving, according to Barra’s predictions. (Getty Images)
In Barra's statistical analysis, 2012 host country Great Britain is one of the biggest gainers while 2004 host Greece has one of the largest drops. Great Britain was 10th in the Athens standings with nine gold and 30 total medals. Barra projects the British winning 13 gold in Beijing and 46 total medals to rank sixth, which he calls "great progress" corresponding to the "great motivation" of the London Olympics.
Greece, however, is on the downswing after hosting the 2004 Games. From 14 medals four years ago (six gold), Barra sees just four medals, with no golds.
So how accurate will these projections be? Barra said he was only 10-15 percent off in comparing his final 2003 chart with his 2004 results, with the exception of the United States. The U.S. team shattered Barra's projections by rolling up 102 medals, 30 more than its performance the previous couple of years indicated. However, Barra expects the 2008 results to be more in line with the projection since the U.S. is now placing more emphasis on performances in World Championships and World Cups than it did in the past.
If observers want to make their own comparisons, Barra’s 2008 medal projections spreadsheet by country includes his 2003 projections and 2004 results along with the 2000 Sydney outcomes.
He noted that there could be some discrepancies in Beijing since not all teams that made the final eight in the World Championships will qualify for the Olympics. Also, Cuba which boycotted the 2007 World Boxing Championships in Chicago, usually places well in Olympic competition.
Barra, who served as deputy CEO of the Torino 2006 Organizing Committee, has been making Olympic projections for the past 10 years. He begins with the results from the previous Olympics, then constantly updates as each major championship occurs.
Barra will release his next Vancounver 2010 projection early next year.
Among other findings in the final Beijing projection Reigning Pole vault World Champion and 2004 gold medalist Yelena Isinbayeva will bring Russia another gold in Beijing, says Barra. (Getty Images)from December:
• Two traditional powerhouses, Germany and Japan, may see their fortunes going in opposite directions. In Athens, Germany was disappointed to win just 13 golds (49 total medals), to rank behind Australia and Japan in sixth place after Barra had projected 19 golds and 55 medals. The Germans could be back on track with 18 projected golds in Beijing, the same number as Australia, while their 60 total medals would be superior to the Aussies' 44.
Japan, however, which was fifth in the Athens medal count with 16 golds and 37 medals, is on course to win only five golds and 31 total medals, a drop to 15th place in the standings.
• Italy and France are expected to produce substantial gains in total medals, with their gold medals remaining about the same.
• Regarding some of the countries once behind the Iron Curtain, Barra points out that "while Poland has doubled its medals" (22 after winning just 10 in Athens), "some former Communist country are not yet finding their way, like Russia did, and I refer to Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania."
Ukraine drops from 23 total medals to 15 and from nine golds to just one. Romania had eight golds and 19 medals in Athens, but the country which once excelled in women's gymnastics is expected to win no golds at all in Beijing and 11 total medals. Bulgaria shows a smaller drop from 12 to 11 medals.
Belarus, on the other hand, is projected to win seven golds, up from two in Athens.
• Barra said that for a country to win 100 medals, it must make the podium in at least 15 of the 26 sports. The U.S. solidly reaches that criteria with 18 sports, most notably athletics, swimming and women's gymnastics. China is projected to medal in 15 sports and Russia and Germany in 16.
Jamaica is expected to be the biggest one-sport wonder, with 10 medals projected, all in track and field.
• Barra said it was important to list the number of finalists (places 4-8) for each country, with the U.S. in the lead at 99, followed by China, Russia and Germany having finalists numbering in the 80s. "Each finalist,” he said, “can win a medal.”
Homepage photo by Getty Images
For general comments or questions, click here
Últimas Noticias
Sinner-Alcaraz, the duel that came to succeed the three phenomenons
Beyond the final result, Roland Garros left the feeling that the Italian and the Spaniard will shape the great duel that came to help us through the duel for the end of the Federer-Nadal-Djokovic era.
Table tennis: Brazil’s Bruna Costa Alexandre will be Olympic and Paralympic in Paris 2024
She is the third in her sport and the seventh athlete to achieve it in the same edition; in Santiago 2023 she was the first athlete with disabilities to compete at the Pan American level and won a medal.
Rugby 7s: the best player of 2023 would only play the medal match in Paris
Argentinian Rodrigo Isgró received a five-game suspension for an indiscipline in the circuit’s decisive clash that would exclude him until the final or the bronze match; the Federation will seek to make the appeal successful.
Rhonex Kipruto, owner of the world record for the 10000 meters on the road, was suspended for six years
The Kenyan received the maximum sanction for irregularities in his biological passport and the Court considered that he was part of a system of “deliberate and sophisticated doping” to improve his performance. He will lose his record and the bronze medal at the Doha World Cup.
Katie Ledecky spoke about doping Chinese swimmers: “It’s difficult to go to Paris knowing that we’re going to compete with some of these athletes”
The American, a seven-time Olympic champion, referred to the case of the 23 positive controls before the Tokyo Games that were announced a few weeks ago and shook the swimming world. “I think our faith in some of the systems is at an all-time low,” he said.
