Russian Medal Haul Defies Expectations

The Russian Olympic team’s spot atop the medal table raised the eyebrows of more than a few Olympic observers.

The Sochi Games marked the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union that Russia paced the Winter Games field in hardware, and it caught a number of publications by surprise.

Infostrada Sports predicted just 17 medals for Russia, while Sports Illustrated was a little closer at 25. The Associated Press actually nailed the Russian total of 33 medals, though it predicted Norway and the United States would both exceed that.

The reasons for Russia's unforeseen dominance are more than the standard home team bump, according to David Wallechinsky.

"There’s an added element," said the Olympic historian, "which is that they did unusually poorly in Vancouver.

Russia’s 13 golds were just two less than the 15 total medals the team took at the last Winter Games. The unusually low total meant a little positive regression was to be expected.

However, a little geopolitical finagling of the team roster was a factor as well.

"Of the 13 gold medals that Russia won, nine of them included at least one athlete who wasn’t born in Russia," said Wallchinsky. "Even though they had seven years to get ready, in a way they supplemented by including them."

Wallechinsky says Russia had not relied as heavily on outsiders in prior Games.

Viktor Ahn, a native South Korean, had developed such a rift with his country’s NOC that he didn’t even participate in Vancouver, even after winning multiple medals in Turin.

Meanwhile, Vic Wild, an American snowboarder, grew frustrated with the U.S. Ski Federation’s disregard for alpine snowboarding and took his allegiance elsewhere after marrying his Russian girlfriend, fellow snowboarder Alena Zavarzina.

The additions paid major dividends for the host country, as the two combined for five gold medals.

The question now is whether Russia will be able to sustain their advantage in future Games.

"You can look at Norway in 1994," said Wallechinsky. "Norway always had a history in speedskating, cross-country skiing, and suddenly they had this breakthrough in alpine skiing, and it’s because they had seven years to develop in sports that they hadn’t been good at before."

Wallechinsky guesses that Russia will remain strong in PyeongChang before falling back to prior levels in 2022 and beyond.

"That’s the pattern," Wallechinsky says, though he cautions that every case is unique.

"We don’t know with Russia."

Written by Nick Devlin

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