Bolsonaro, Lula gather almost 75% of voting intentions in Brazil

(Bloomberg) The “moderate” presidential candidates seem increasingly far from challenging Brazil's most polarizing political figures, Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in the October elections.

With friendly fire and miscalculations, centrist-hopefuls for the country's presidency are undermining attempts to give voters a “third way,” an alternative to the country's favorite right-wing and left-wing candidates. Six months before Brazilians go to the polls, opinion polls show that the current president, Bolsonaro, 67, and former president Lula, 76, have almost three-quarters of the voting intentions.

Bolsonaro received more support after former judge Sergio Moro, who became a household name in Brazil when he was leading the Lava Jato corruption investigation, suspended his candidacy last week. According to an Ipespe poll released on Wednesday, the president now has 30% of the vote, four percentage points more than in March and approaching Lula, who remains in the lead with 44%.

“The idea of a 'third way' candidate is more of a hope than a reality, we haven't seen one really emerge,” said Carolina Botelho, a political scientist at Rio de Janeiro State University. “The names that have appeared have not been strong enough to win voters, and what is clear is that it is a very fragmented group.”

In Brazil, a candidate needs to obtain more than 50% of the valid votes to win in the first round. If that doesn't happen, the favorites compete head-to-head in a second and final round. Ipespe interviewed 1,000 people by phone across Brazil between April 2 and 5, with a margin of error of 3.2%.

A counterproductive strategy

Moro, who put Lula behind bars before the 2018 elections and then considered biased against the former president by the nation's supreme court, had been behind the top candidates for months. He went side by side with Ciro Gomes, who was governor of the state of Ceará.

In an attempt to increase his chances, the former judge decided to migrate to a larger and richer party, but his strategy failed when the leaders of that group blocked his candidacy last week.

Other third-way contenders are in an equally difficult position.

The former governors of São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul have intensified an internal struggle to represent the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) in the October elections.

Last week, João Doria resigned from the government of São Paulo after winning the party's primary, but Eduardo Leite is still considering a presidential candidacy. He is in talks with Senator Simone Tebet, a prominent opponent of Bolsonaro, to become running mates in a possible alliance between their parties. However, none have exceeded 3% in recent surveys.

Some third-way candidates are in initial talks about joining in a single bet, but there is little consensus on which names would appear on the ballot. Meanwhile, the presidential field seems to be becoming even more polarized, with both favorites very aware of their position.

“Now in Brazil they are looking for a so-called third way,” Lula said Tuesday in an interview with a local radio station. “Leadership is not something you learn in college.”

Original Note:

Brazil Moderates' Flop Sets Stage for Lula, Bolsonaro Showdown

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