The Guardians of the Revolution, the obstacle to saving Iran's nuclear deal

It is one of the last obstacles that must be overcome in order to save the Iranian nuclear deal: Iran demands that the United States remove the Guardians of the Revolution from its blacklist of terrorist organizations in a symbolic but politically risky gesture for Joe Biden.

Israel's public intervention on Friday in the debate will further complicate the US president's decision.

“The body of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution (...) murdered thousands of people, some of them Americans.” “We refuse to believe that the United States will withdraw its designation as a terrorist organization,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said in a statement.

Iran and the United States have been negotiating for eleven months in Vienna to save the agreement signed in 2015 between Tehran and the major powers with the aim of ensuring that the Islamic Republic does not obtain the nuclear bomb.

The deal virtually died when the United States abandoned it in 2018 under the presidency of Donald Trump, who reinstated sanctions that stifle the Iranian economy, pushing Tehran to set aside restrictions on its nuclear program.

Now Biden says he is ready to return to the agreement and lift the sanctions, if the Iranians return to their commitments.

And Iran declared, in turn, this week that there are only “two issues” to be negotiated with the United States, including that of the “guarantees” it demands on the survival of the agreement in the event of political alternation in the White House.

The other obstacle has to do with the Guardians of the Revolution, the ideological army of the Islamic Republic, as confirmed by a source close to the case.

In April 2019, the Trump administration inscribed the Guardians on its blacklist of “foreign terrorist organizations” to exert “maximum pressure” on Iranian power.

Although this is not in theory a sanction related to the nuclear program, Tehran believes that it would not have been taken without the US exit from the 2015 agreement and that it should be deleted.

- 'A Promise' -

Between the lines, Israel's communiqué suggests that a compromise takes place in Vienna. “We find it hard to believe that the designation of the Guardians of the Revolution as a terrorist organization will be annulled in exchange for a promise not to affect Americans,” he says.

The American right wing and representatives close to Israel are also multiplying warnings.

“Any agreement that enriches Iranian terrorists would not last,” said former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, proud to have “put Iran on his waist.” “We did it and we will do it again,” he said.

So far, the government remains discreet.

The dilemma is complex because the acceptance of the accusation of terrorism against the Guardians is almost unanimous in Washington. The entity, which supports the Lebanese group Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis and some Iraqi militias, is held responsible for numerous attacks on US soldiers and interests in the Middle East.

“America's number one goal over Iran is that it never get a nuclear weapon,” General Kenneth McKenzie, chief of US forces in the Middle East, recalled Friday. “Any solution that prevents it contributes to regional security,” he told the press.

McKenzie also stressed that removing the Guardians from the blacklist “doesn't change much” from “an operational standpoint” and from “the threat” they pose to Washington.

Several experts say that even if the Biden administration yields on that point, the Guardians and their leaders will continue to be subject to other sanctions.

For Barbara Slavin of the Atlantic Council, it is worth lifting the sanction if it allows the 2015 agreement to be saved. “I think the detractors of the agreement pounced on this issue in a last attempt to prevent it from being resurrected.”

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