In a move calculated to the extreme to show her political break with Alberto Fernández, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner left the Upper House before the passage of the law supporting the agreement with the International Monetary Fund. An hour later, CFK confirmed with a chat that its opposition to the IMF had been defeated by an unprecedented parliamentary coalition that united Peronist, provincial party and Juntos for Change senators. The result was 56 votes in favor and 13 against.
The President was having dinner at Juan Manzur's house when the result was known. Alberto Fernández and his chief of staff are in Tucumán, and the smiles and applause responded to two political reasons: the law avoided default with the IMF and his legislative debate showed that it is possible to isolate the Vice President if negotiating with the opposition.
Presidential joy is an ephemeral fact. The Fund's board has not yet disbursed the Special Drawing Rights (DEG's) needed to cancel the $2.8 billion due next week, and there is not a single possibility that Together for Change will replace La Campora and the Patria Institute to allow Alberto Fernández administer your Government without major setbacks.
The Frente de Todos no longer exists, the head of state has less than a hundred deputies and barely twenty senators to get his initiatives through both chambers of Congress. This implies that Alberto Fernández will rule under the crossfire of the opposition and the complex palatial intern that the Vice President and Máximo Kirchner will star.
In this context, the President will record a speech today to announce his first offensive in the war against inflation. This is an unequal fight, waged without a specific plan, and supported by a sequence of measures that have not yet been defined in the Ministries of Economy, Productive Development and Agriculture and Livestock.
Food inflation reached 40 percent in the first two weeks of March, and the trend is bullish. To which should be added the exponential increase in fuels used to provide electricity and heating in Argentina.
Both commodities suffer the consequences of Russia's war against Ukraine, and there is little that the head of state can do since Balcarce 50. It is estimated that inflation in March - for food - may reach double digits and that gas will be lacking when the cold starts to tighten in May.
In the midst of the war against inflation, and with a ruling coalition that is already decimated, Alberto Fernández must decide what to do with the lockers of power occupied by the Instituto Patria and La Campora.
The League of Governors, the mayors of the conurbano who always distrusted CFK, the legislators who condemned Máximo's personal strategy and the ministers most loyal to the government, demand that Alberto Fernández force a change of Cabinet, to evict the most powerful banks of the administration - PAMI and ANSES, to name two cases -, and to assume full leadership of Balcarce 50.
The head of state does not want to consolidate the rupture in the middle of the war against inflation, but he also assumes that he loses power every time CFK moves against him. Alberto Fernández knows that the Vice President is preparing her reply and that it is better to advance a political move than to be exposed and defensive.
The senators and deputies who voted against the agreement with the IMF have already crossed and await the orders of Cristina and Máximo Kirchner. They have no intention of giving up their spaces of power and believe that Alberto Fernández betrayed their political ideals.
Hay ruido de tambores.
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