Why it might be a good time for the Ukrainian counterattack

“Weapons, weapons, weapons.” That was Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba's plea during his speech in Brussels. This is what your country needs to have the unique opportunity not only to resist the bloody invasion ordered by Vladimir Putin on February 24, but also to win the war on its territory and expel the aggressor army definitively. And that possibility is on the table, according to international analysts. Much more so after the absolute withdrawal of Russian forces from Kiev and its surroundings was verified.

Russia's troops were expelled after nearly 40 days of not being able to advance to the Ukrainian capital. They are on their way back to their country and to Belarus, Putin's complicit nation that will also pay dearly for their logistical and political support. They also went to Donbas, where Moscow wants to increase harassment. The withdrawal of Russian troops from the outskirts of Kiev and the north-east of the country is “largely complete”. In about a week, the Kremlin forces will reposition themselves in the east. The information departed from the Pentagon this Wednesday.

With the approach of Russia's traditional Victory Day parade on May 9, Putin wants to show some achievement of the invasion - which he called a “special military operation” - before the Russian people. And in the face of the failure to take control of the Ukrainian capital, the focus will now be on the eastern Donbas region. However, the government of Volodymyr Zelensky believes - and other Western intelligence agencies - believes that it could achieve a total victory if it also succeeds in expelling the Russians from there - and the south of the country -. That's why Kuleba's desperate order.

The Russian plan is simple and was stated by The Economist: “If (Moscow) has enough manpower to take it all, it is still questionable. By concentrating its efforts in fewer places, Russia expects to gather higher numbers. As a result, it has withdrawn forces heading towards Kiev from Sumy, in northeastern Ukraine. Units that were in Belarus are also moving to western Russia, according to railway tracking websites.”

However, there are not a few problems that the invading army will face. “A quarter of Russia's initial invasion force may have been injured or killed,” says the magazine, adding that of the “125 tactical battalion groups assembled for the invasion, 29 have been 'not effective in combat', says one Western official, meaning they have had to be eliminated or merged with others. Repairing them and moving them to the east could take about a month.” Maybe Putin's party should wait.

For its part, an article in the London daily The Times suggests that Ukrainian forces could definitively defeat the aggressors if they have the necessary war material. Again: “Weapons, weapons, weapons.” “Ukraine could push back or even 'break' the Russian army if Western allies give it enough capable weaponry, British government sources suggest. The mood in the British and Ukrainian military circles has become more positive, and government figures believe that the Russian army is' exhausted 'and unable to occupy territory in the long term. A shopping list compiled by Ukraine and sent to NATO allies is believed to include planes, tanks, armored vehicles, long-range artillery, anti-ship missiles and air defense systems,” according to an article published today by journalist Larisa Brown.

The Economist agrees: “This is a good time for Ukraine to press its counterattack: on each day of the last week of March, it gained more territory than it lost. But as long as Russian troops remain in Belarus, Ukraine cannot transfer all its forces to Donbas. It has to protect Kiev and defend its supply lines from the west. However, it should be able to move some units east and south, and do it faster than Russia.”

“Ukraine will also need less conspicuous things, such as Soviet-era artillery ammunition, to fuel its guns in a long war of attrition. That is the kind of war that may be going on. Russia's original goal was to envelop Ukrainian forces in the Donbas attacking its rear, converging on the city of Dnipro. If she tried it now, having left Kiev and Sumy, her own flanks would be vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks from the north, and she would risk being surrounded,” the British magazine explained.

Meanwhile, a British government source informed the English daily that tanks and any armored vehicle would be crucial for Ukrainian forces to counterattack Russian invaders. At the moment it became known that the Czech Republic is delivering ten. Dozens are still missing.

“Putin's bet,” says The Economist, “is that he can wear out the Ukrainian army before Russia runs out of money.” However, Russian insolvency is likely to occur first. “Mark Cancian of CSIS, another study center, believes that as casualties rise, supplies run out and morale declines, Russian generals will have to unite and force Putin to face the facts. But first there will be more fighting.”

“At the moment, Ukraine has been conducting a defensive operation,” said Nicholas Drummond, a former British Army officer and defense analyst. “Now they want to reconquer territory. They need vehicles that allow them to storm positions held by the Russians.” Drummond said that the Warrior armored tracked vehicle would be the most useful because it had a high level of protection, could carry troops and had a 30 mm gun, according to The Times.

Despite the optimism that prevails in some Ukrainian military personnel, it would be a time to think carefully about the next steps. Analysts consider that it is one thing to expel the Russians from the territories that were taken since February 24 and quite another to remove them from those places where they are most settled and for the longest time such as Crimea or the Donbas. To expel them from these places would require a large-scale counterattack with other weapons.

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