Western Sahara, a conflict stuck in the UN that leans towards Rabat

Mario Villar United Nations, 19 Mar The conflict in Western Sahara, which has been going on for almost half a century, continues to be stuck in the United Nations, but it is increasingly leaning towards Moroccan theses, especially after the turn in the US position and that announced this Friday by Spain. The Spanish Government yesterday endorsed the Moroccan autonomy initiative for Western Sahara as the “most realistic” way of resolving the conflict, which represents a total change in the country's official position, since until now it defended agreements at the United Nations to hold a referendum to determine the future of its former colony. Since 1965, the UN has had Western Sahara on its list of Non-Self-Governing Territories and, as a result of the war waged by Morocco and the Frente Polisario between 1975 and 1991, it is a fixed issue on the agenda of the Security Council, the body responsible for peace and security affairs. It was the Security Council who agreed in 1991 to create the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (Minurso) as part of a transitional arrangement to prepare for a consultation in which the people of Western Sahara chose between independence and integration with Morocco. THE REFERENDUM, ALMOST FORGOTTEN After three decades, however, that referendum is still not held and it has fewer and fewer signs of becoming a reality. First there were discrepancies over the Sahrawi voter census and then Morocco's already frontal refusal to accept the consultation, with Rabat offering as the only avenue a proposal for autonomy. With Polisario rooted in the need for a self-determination referendum and Morocco comfortable with its territorial control and its offer of autonomy with imprecise contours, the years have passed without the Security Council acting decisively to try to break the difficult situation. Almost out of inertia, the Council's powers have been extending the mandate of MINURSO and keeping the issue in the background, while gradually changing the language of their resolutions along a line that, for many analysts, is increasingly favourable to Moroccan interests. Over the years, the UN mission has become little more than an observer of the ceasefire, and the word referendum no longer even appears in texts that are regularly adopted by the Security Council. In the last resolution to extend MINURSO, last October, this body called for a “political solution” that is “realistic, viable, lasting and acceptable to all parties”. THE MEDIATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Meanwhile, the work of the UN itself to achieve these goals remains unsuccessful despite the efforts of a number of mediators who have been in office and who have often been ostracized by the Rabat authorities. The last negotiation attempt took place in 2018 and 2019, when the then United Nations envoy, German Horst Köhler, managed to seat Morocco and Polisario, along with Algeria and Mauritania, after years of blockade. The Köhler meeting for health reasons, however, led to two years of almost total paralysis, with great difficulty in achieving a new mediator acceptable to all sides. Finally, last October the Italian-Swedish diplomat Staffan de Mistura was appointed, who last January made his first visit to the area with the idea of trying to unblock the situation, without any concrete initiatives being known for this. IN THE HANDS OF THE POWERS Faced with this blockade, the great news in recent years have come from the hand of national decisions, mainly that taken by the United States at the end of 2020. Washington, which has been in charge of drafting Council resolutions on Western Sahara for decades, then decided to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the territory. The turn was taken by Republican Donald Trump when he was leaving the White House, but that decision has not been reversed by the Administration of Democrat Joe Biden. This Friday, following the announcement by Spain, Washington reiterated that it considers the autonomy plan proposed by Morocco in 2007 for the Sahara as a “serious, credible and realistic” initiative to resolve the conflict. The Moroccan position has thus been strongly strengthened in recent years, as Rabat already had the clear support of France, which is one of the five powers with veto power in the Security Council, and which through silent diplomacy has protected Moroccan interests while other powers preferred not to get too involved in the question. CHIEF mvs/fjo/jrh