By Mark Zeigler
Union-Tribune Staff Writer
2:00 a.m. October 1, 2009
Trying to figure out the International Olympic Committee, trying to analyze and comprehend the lords of the interlocking rings, is a little like reading tea leaves.
Sometimes there is a clear, discernible message staring up at you through the tea. Sometimes it looks like a bunch of leaves at the bottom of a porcelain cup.
The IOC assembles in Copenhagen, Denmark, to choose a host city for the 2016 Summer Games, and what transpires tomorrow is anyone's guess. The decision is considered the closest and hardest to handicap in memory, and a relatively large number of the body's 108 voting members are said to still be uncommitted.
They will choose among four finalists — Chicago, Rio de Janeiro, Madrid and Tokyo — but, really, the decision is far more profound and fundamental. Do they embrace the Olympic spirit of universality and inclusion, sending the Olympic Games to South America for the first time? Or do they dock in the safe harbor of Chicago to maximize revenues amid a global economic crisis?
Do they vote with their hearts? Or their pocketbooks?
Or do they compromise and make a quick return to Europe or Asia?
“All the scenarios are possible,” IOC President Jacques Rogge said.
It makes for one of the most intriguing host city votes in history, one complicated by an uneasy relationship between the IOC and the U.S. Olympic Committee but soothed by the last-minute appearance of President Barack Obama in Copenhagen. There also is the selection process, which is by secret ballot and prone to wild swings.
A simple majority is necessary for victory. If there isn't one, the candidate receiving the fewest votes is dropped and another ballot is conducted.
Four years ago, Madrid got the most votes on the third ballot but not enough for outright victory to host the 2012 Summer Olympics, which went to London. One candidate was dropped and a fourth ballot was held.
Madrid got the fewest votes and was eliminated.
At various times during the 2016 bid process, all four candidates were viewed as the front-runner. More recently, Olympic insiders say Madrid and Tokyo have slipped while Chicago and Rio de Janeiro have edged ahead.
Most bookmakers rate Chicago the thinnest of favorites. Two prominent Olympic bid experts, Gamesbids.com and Around the Rings , grade the Brazilian city slightly higher in their bid rankings.
The X factor is Obama, who considers Chicago his adopted hometown and will become the first sitting U.S. president to be present for an IOC vote. Obama initially said he was too busy working on health care reform and instead dispatched first lady Michelle Obama, then changed his mind and decided to attend.
Chicago is in a precarious position. Its greatest asset is being a U.S. city. Its greatest liability is being a U.S. city.
The IOC has not been immune to the global recession, and a disproportionate chunk of its revenue comes from U.S. corporate sponsors and television rights fees. And with no TV contract negotiated past 2012, an American host city for 2016 would almost certainly inflate its value.
But the IOC also has increasingly become Eurocentric and methodically shifted the balance of power from the United States. The 15-person IOC executive board no longer has any U.S. members, and the American pastimes of baseball and softball were voted off the Olympic island.
There also are the nasty spats between the USOC and the IOC over revenue sharing and an Olympic TV network, both of which incited bitter exchanges earlier this year and were subsequently tabled until after the 2016 vote.
Rogge, the IOC chief from Belgium, insists those two incidents “will have no negative effect whatsoever” on Chicago.
Added USOC Chairman Larry Probst: “We have removed those roadblocks from the Chicago bid. I think we're in good shape.”
Four years ago, British Prime Minister Tony Blair's efforts in working the hotel suites of Singapore was seen as instrumental — and perhaps the difference — in guiding London past favored Paris in the vote to host the 2012 Games.
Obama will have less time to work the room in Copenhagen. His itinerary has him on Danish soil a mere 20 hours.
And in Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, he has a worthy adversary. “Lula,” as he is known, has been aggressively campaigning for Rio for months, positioning the bid as a chance for the Olympic movement to reaffirm the tenets upon which it was founded.
Rio's bid presentations begin with a world map, with colored dots representing the cities that have hosted the Olympics. There is a conspicuous blank spot in South America.
“Are the Olympic Games a sports event where only rich countries have the right, or is it another thing?” Lula said during a recent media tour in New York. “It can't be a European, or an American, Olympic Games. It has to be a world Olympic Games. . . . If (IOC members) don't think that way, the Olympics has lost its sense of integrating society.”
The decision rendered in Copenhagen will send ripples as far away as Chula Vista, where the USOC's only warm-weather training center is located. The loss of several major corporate sponsors has precipitated USOC staff layoffs as well as a reduction in athlete support.
Having a Summer Games on U.S. soil could reverse that, enriching USOC coffers and ultimately trickling down to athletes training in Chula Vista and elsewhere.
“I would hope that a Chicago Olympics would result in excitement and energy not only by corporate America but the general American public,” said Dave Stow, the center's associate director. “Those are the two groups that sustain our organization. That would result, you'd think, in more funding for athletes down the line.”
2016 SUMMER OLYMPICS
What: Selection of the host by the International Olympic Committee.
Where: Bella Center, Copenhagen, Demark.
When: Tomorrow, with voting beginning at 8:10 a.m. PDT. The official announcement is scheduled for 9:30 a.m.
Format: The IOC's 108 members each get one vote in a secret ballot, except for delegates from candidate countries. A simple majority is necessary to win. If there is no majority, the city with the lowest vote total is dropped and another round of balloting is conducted.
TV: Announcement carried live on NBC's Universal Sports and streamed on UniversalSports.com at 9:30 a.m. tomorrow.
Chicago
Previous bids: 1952, 1956. (Chicago initially was granted the 1904 Games before they were moved to St. Louis.)
Pros: Centralized venues in city parks and along Lake Michigan; adopted hometown of President Barack Obama; likely would make U.S. TV rights fees more lucrative; Americas haven't hosted the Summer Games since Atlanta in 1996; strong professional sports legacy.
Cons: About half of the venues must be built; delay in obtaining financial guarantees from city; recent squabbles between U.S. Olympic Committee and IOC; questionable public support; Eurocentric, anti-American leanings of IOC.
Outlook: Now that Obama has decided to fly to Copenhagen, it comes down to this: How many votes can he pull from Rio?
Rio de Janeiro
Previous bids: 1936, 1940, 2004, 2012.
Pros: South America has never hosted an Olympics; infrastructure will remain after Brazil hosts the 2014 World Cup; successful 2007 Pan Am Games; emerging economy; only one hour ahead of U.S. Eastern time zone; strong public support.
Cons: Crime rates among the highest in the world; hotel shortage; sponsors and private investment could be drained by 2014 World Cup; only five of 108 IOC members are from South America.
Outlook: It is the logical choice, South America never having hosted an Olympics, but when has the IOC ever been logical?
Madrid
Previous bids: 1972, 2012.
Pros: Twenty-three of 33 venues already built; compact bid in city center; hosted 250 international sports events over past decade; golden era of Spanish sports achievement; former IOC President Juan Antonio Samaranch is from Spain.
Cons: Perceived soft stance on doping; terrorism fears; Madrid's $9.7 billion debt and high unemployment rate; insufferable summer temperatures; 2012 Summer Games and 2014 Winter Games are in Europe.
Outlook: It actually led on an early ballot for 2012, then faded and finished third. This could be a re-run.
Tokyo
Previous bids: Hosted 1964 Summer Games.
Pros: Most venues already exist; all but a few are within a 5-mile radius; solid financing; Japanese organization and efficiency; futuristic Olympic stadium on Tokyo Bay completely powered by solar energy.
Cons: Lukewarm public support; Asia hosted the most recent Summer Games; traffic; heat and humidity.
Outlook: Might be the best overall bid on paper but people can't seem to get excited about it. Surviving the first round could be tough.
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/oct/01/2016-olympic-site-selection-pitting-gold-vs-good-w/?sports
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