(Bloomberg) — The probability that new variants of covid will emerge more dangerous than the current ones is about one in five, said the executive director of Moderna Inc.
The most likely scenario is that vulnerable people, such as the elderly and the immunocompromised, will need annual reinforcements to protect themselves against variants that are similar in virulence to omicron, Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said Thursday in an interview with Bloomberg TV. Bancel spoke on the day of a company event detailing its research and progress with messenger RNA vaccines.
Moderna is working to reassure investors about its long-term growth prospects as new cases decline following the winter spread of the omicron variant. However, the BA.2 subvariant of omicron continues to circulate, raising concerns about a resurgence and the emergence of new variants of the virus with greater power to infect and get sick.
“I think there is an 80% chance that the variants we are going to see in the future will be manageable from the point of view of severity and vaccine production,” Bancel said in the interview. “But I think we should always be very cautious, because there is a 20% chance that something very virulent will happen in some of the new variants.”
Moderna has signed agreements for $21 billion in vaccine sales for 2022, up from the $19 billion announced in February, according to a statement released on Thursday. The company also said that talks for additional orders are taking place in 2022 and 2023 with countries around the world, including the United States.
On Wednesday, Moderna said it would request approval of its covid vaccine in children under 6 years of age after the vaccine generated strong immune responses in a large pediatric trial. Obtaining authorization for younger children could represent another opportunity for Moderna, as its rival, partners Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE, have faced setbacks in their trials.
Bancel said that authorization of Moderna's vaccine in very young children is more likely to arrive first in the UK or other countries abroad. Approval in young children could take a little longer in the US, where Moderna's vaccine is not yet approved for children of any age, he added.
During Thursday's virtual investor meeting, Moderna said provisional data from a mid-stage trial of its first influenza vaccine indicated that it was safe and generated an immune response. The results suggest that the experimental flu vaccine may be superior to existing influenza A vaccines, the variant that accounts for the majority of cases in adults, officials said. The company also said it expects its combined influenza and covid vaccine to start human testing this year.
“I think we're going to hit the market with a very highly effective flu vaccine,” Bancel said on Bloomberg TV.
Original Note:
Modern CEO Sees 1-in-5 Odds of Dangerous Future Covid Variant
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