NATO estimates that between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers died in Ukraine

NATO estimated on Wednesday that between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers have died in four weeks of fighting in Ukraine, where the country's defenders have held out longer than expected and denied Moscow the lightning victory it expected.

A senior NATO military official said that the estimate was based on information from Ukrainian officials, what Russia has published, intentionally or not, and intelligence collected from open sources. The official spoke on condition of anonymity according to the basic rules established by NATO.

When Russia unleashed its invasion on February 24 in Europe's biggest offensive since World War II and showed the prospect of nuclear escalation if the West intervened, a rapid overthrow of Ukraine's democratically elected government seemed likely.

But with Wednesday marking four full weeks of fighting, Russia is bogged down in a grueling military campaign, with an untold death toll, with no immediate end in sight, and its economy paralyzed by Western sanctions. US President Joe Biden and key allies will meet in Brussels and Warsaw this week to discuss possible new punitive measures and further military aid to Ukraine.

When Biden left the White House on Wednesday to take the flight to Europe, he warned that there is a “real threat” that Russia could use chemical weapons and said he would discuss that danger with the other leaders.

The economic and geopolitical shockwaves of the war, with sky-high energy prices, fears for global food supplies, and the alignment of Russia and China in a new world order with echoes of the Cold War, have impacted an entire planet that has not yet emerged from the COVID-19 crisis.

In an apparent reflection of growing divisions at Russia's highest levels, senior official Anatoly Chubais resigned, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Interfax news agency.

Chubais, the architect of Russia's post-Soviet privatization campaign, had served in a variety of senior official positions for three decades. His last role was as Putin's envoy to international organizations.

Peskov did not say whether Chubais had left the country.

With his olive green t-shirts, his unshaven face and his passionate appeals to governments around the world, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has transformed himself into a wartime leader and the main antagonist of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Addressing Japan's parliament on Wednesday, Zelensky said four weeks of war have killed thousands, including at least 121 children from Ukraine.

“Our people can't even properly bury their murdered family, friends and neighbors. They have to be buried right in the yards of destroyed buildings, next to the roads,” he said.

Repeatedly rejected by Ukrainian units armed with Western-supplied weapons, Russian troops are shelling targets from afar, resorting to the tactics they used to reduce cities to ruins in Syria and Chechnya.

The main Russian objectives remain unfulfilled. The capital, Kiev, has been repeatedly bombed but is not even surrounded.

More shelling and gunfire rocked the city on Wednesday, with plumes of black smoke rising from the western outskirts, where the two sides fought for control of multiple suburbs. Mayor Vitali Klitschko said that at least 264 civilians have died in the capital since the war broke out.

In the south, the port city of Mariupol has suffered the worst devastation of the war, after weeks of siege and bombing. But Ukrainian forces have prevented their fall, thwarting an apparent attempt by Moscow to fully secure a land bridge from Russia to Crimea, confiscated from Ukraine in 2014.

Zelensky said that 100,000 civilians remain in a city that had 430,000 inhabitants. It has been torn apart by attacks from the air, land and sea, and repeated efforts to get the food and other supplies desperately needed by trapped people have often failed.

“We were bombed for the past 20 days,” said Viktoria Totsen, 39, who fled Mariupol to Poland. “For the past five days, planes were flying over us every five seconds and dropping bombs everywhere: in residential buildings, kindergartens, art schools, everywhere.”

Zelensky, speaking Tuesday in his late night video address to his nation, said that efforts to establish humanitarian corridors for Mariupol residents are almost all being “thwarted by Russian occupiers, by bombing or deliberate terror.”

He accused Russian forces of seizing a humanitarian convoy. Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said that the Russians held 11 bus drivers and four rescuers captive along with their vehicles.

The head of the International Committee of the Red Cross traveled to Moscow on Wednesday to discuss humanitarian aid, prisoners of war and other issues with Russian officials.

“The devastation caused by the conflict in recent weeks, as well as the eight years of conflict in Donbas, has been enormous,” said Red Cross President Peter Maurer.

It is not clear how much of Mariupol is still under Ukrainian control. Residents who flee say the fight continues street by street. In their last update, more than a week ago, Mariupol officials said that at least 2300 people had died, but the real figure is probably much higher. Last week's airstrikes destroyed a theater and art school where civilians were sheltering.

In the besieged northern city of Chernihiv, Russian forces shelled and destroyed a bridge used to send aid and evacuate civilians, said regional governor Viacheslav Chaus.

Kateryna Mytkevich, who arrived in Poland after fleeing Chernihiv, wiped her tears as she talked about what she had seen.

The city has no gas, electricity or running water, said 39-year-old Mytkevich, and entire neighborhoods have been destroyed.

“I don't understand why we have such a curse,” he said.

Despite much evidence to the contrary, the Kremlin spokesman insisted that the military operation was “strictly in accordance” with the plans.

Russia wants to “get rid of Ukraine's military potential” and “ensure that Ukraine moves from being an anti-Russian center to a neutral country,” Peskov said.

Officially, Russia calls the campaign a “special military operation”. It has effectively banned terms such as “invasion” and “war”, and police have arrested thousands of anti-war protesters.

But as casualties rise and a quick victory is no longer in sight, Russia must work to boost morale. Under a law passed Wednesday, troops in Ukraine will get the same benefits as veterans of previous wars, including tax breaks, discounts on public services and preferential access to medical treatment.

Western officials say that Ukrainian resistance has halted much of Russia's advance and that Putin's forces are facing severe shortages of food, fuel and cold-weather equipment.

Russia's military casualties are unclear, but even conservative Western estimates are in the thousands.

“We have seen signs that Ukrainians are now a little more on the offensive,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby. He said that was particularly true in southern Ukraine, even near Kherson.

But Russia's much stronger and larger army has many Western military experts who warn against overconfidence in Ukraine's long-term odds. The Kremlin's practice in past wars has been to crush resistance with attacks that ravaged cities, killed countless civilians and caused millions to flee.

Talks to end the clashes have continued on video. Zelenskyy said that negotiations with Russia are going “step by step, but they are moving forward.”

Without peace, those who were not yet fighting prepared to do so.

“Everything is a bestseller these days,” said Zakhar Sluzhalyy, owner of a gun shop in the western city of Lviv.

“We are defending our land,” he said. “We are fighting for our freedom and that of the rest of Europe.”

(with information from AP)

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