What is behind the Russian announcement about an alleged withdrawal in Ukraine and why some units will be withdrawn

Some Russian units that have suffered heavy losses in Ukraine have been forced to return home and to neighboring Belarus, according to British military intelligence, a day after Russia promised to reduce military operations around Kiev and another city.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted with skepticism to the offer made by Russia during the negotiations in Istanbul, aimed at de-escalating a conflict that is now in its fifth week.

Its forces have stopped the invasion on most fronts, and some analysts pointed out that Russia's promise to reduce fighting was mostly in areas where it has been losing ground, although many civilians remain trapped in the besieged cities of the south and east.

Heavy losses and the withdrawal of some troops were affecting Russian operations, the British Defense Ministry said.

“This activity is putting greater pressure on Russian logistics, which is already under great pressure, and demonstrates the difficulties Russia is having in reorganizing its units in the vanguard areas within Ukraine,” he said in an assessment Wednesday.

Russia is likely to continue to compensate for its reduced ground maneuvering capacity with massive artillery and missile attacks, the ministry added.

Russia has failed to capture any major cities in its month-long invasion, while Ukrainian forces have made progress, reclaiming territory from Russian troops on the outskirts of Kiev, in the northeast and in the south.

One of the recaptured areas on a road to the village of Rusaniv was full of burnt tanks and pieces of Russian uniforms. The surrounding houses were destroyed.

Russia calls its assault a “special operation” to disarm and “denazify” Ukraine. The West says it launched an unprovoked invasion. The biggest attack on a European nation since World War II has killed or injured thousands of people, forced nearly 4 million to flee abroad, and hit the Russian economy with sanctions.

Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said that the offer to reduce some military operations was a step towards building confidence in ongoing negotiations with Ukrainian representatives in Istanbul. “In order to increase mutual trust and create the necessary conditions for further negotiation and achieve the ultimate goal of agreeing and signing (a) agreement, the decision was made to radically reduce, by a large margin, military activity in the Kiev and Chernigov leadership,” Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin told the press.

Fomin mentioned other areas where heavy fighting has taken place, such as the area around Mariupol in the south-east, Sumy and Kharkov in eastern Ukraine, and Kherson and Mikolaiv in the south.

“Ukrainians are not naive people,” Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky said late Tuesday. “The Ukrainians have already learned during these 34 days of invasion, and in the last eight years of the war on the Dombas, that the only thing they can rely on is a concrete result.”

POSSIBLE MAJOR OFFENSIVE

Russia has begun to move a very small number of troops away from positions around Kiev, in a movement that, according to the United States, is more of a repositioning than a withdrawal or withdrawal from war.

“We must all be prepared to observe a larger offensive against other areas of Ukraine,” US Defense Spokesman John Kirby said at a briefing. “This does not mean that the threat to Kiev is over.”

The British Defense Ministry said earlier: “It is very likely that Russia will try to divert combat power from the north to its offensive in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the east.”

Reuters could not immediately verify the claims of either party.

The self-proclaimed Moscow-backed Donetsk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine could consider joining Russia once it controls the entire Donetsk region of Ukraine, as stated by its top leader. Kiev has said that any such movement would have no legal basis.

Thousands of civilians may have been killed in the besieged port city of Mariupol, in southeastern Ukraine, as the head of the United Nations human rights mission in the country told Reuters on Tuesday.

Those who remain are suffering.

“We are eight people. We have two buckets of potatoes and a bucket of onions,” said Irina, an engineer, in her apartment, whose windows have been destroyed.

In the southern city of Mikolaiv, a missile opened a hole in the main administrative building. According to authorities, at least 12 people were killed and 33 were injured.

The Russian military accused Ukrainian forces in the attacked cities of using the ceasefire to restore combat readiness and establish shooting centers in hospitals and schools, the Interfax news agency said.

The leaders of Germany, the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Italy agreed in a phone call on Tuesday afternoon to continue to pressure Russia for a ceasefire and the withdrawal of its troops from Ukraine, a German government spokesman said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday addressed developments around Ukraine in a phone call, including the latest round of Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul, as reported by the Kremlin.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Deputy National Security Adviser for Economic Affairs Daleep Singh will visit India to pressure New Delhi, which has called for a ceasefire but refused to explicitly condemn Moscow.

PROPOSALS

Ukrainian negotiators said that, according to their proposals, Kiev would agree not to join military alliances or host foreign army bases, but would be guaranteed security in terms similar to “Article 5″, the collective defense clause of NATO's transatlantic military alliance.

The proposals, which would require a referendum in Ukraine, mentioned a 15-year consultation period on the status of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014.

The fate of the southeastern Dombas region, which Russia demands that Ukraine yield to the separatists, would be discussed by Ukrainian and Russian leaders.

Kiev's proposals also included one in which Moscow would not oppose Ukraine joining the European Union, according to Russia's top negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky. Russia has previously opposed Ukraine's accession to the EU and especially NATO.

Medinsky said the Russian delegation would study and submit the proposals to President Putin.

With a view to the preparation of a peace agreement, Medinsky later told the TASS news agency that “we still have a long way to go”.

(With information from Reuters/By Pavel Polityuk and Gleb Garanich)

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