The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that it feared a strong “impact” on world oil supply as a result of sanctions against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine, and estimated that Russian oil could not be replaced immediately.
“The prospect of large-scale disruptions in Russian production threatens to create a global impact on oil supply,” the agency, which advises developed countries on energy policy, wrote in its monthly report.
The war in Ukraine is creating great volatility in the markets, with prices approaching record highs — Brent crude hit $139.13 on March 7 — although they later receded.
Russia is the world's largest exporter of oil and refined products to the rest of the world, with 8 million barrels per day (mbd).
The United States and the United Kingdom imposed an embargo on Russian oil because of the war in Ukraine, but in Europe the energy sector is excluded from European Union (EU) sanctions.
However, the IEA notes that many companies have moved away from Russia on their own and estimates that as of April 3 mbd of Russian oil may not be available.
- “Transition” -
Faced with this shortage, “there is little evidence of an increase in supply from the Middle East or a significant reallocation of trade flows,” says the IEA.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners within the framework of OPEC+, which includes Russia, are refusing for the moment to increase production to ease the market, sticking to a gradual increase of 400,000 barrels a day each month.
Countries with additional production capacities, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, do not seem to want to increase their production, and the return to Iran's oil market, which depends on a possible international agreement on its nuclear program, will not be immediate.
The IEA estimates that Iran's exports could increase by around 1 mbd for six months, a figure insufficient to compensate for the loss of Russian oil.
Venezuela — with which Washington has resumed dialogue — could only make a “modest” contribution for its part in the event of the lifting of US sanctions.
Outside OPEC+, other countries will most likely increase production, such as Brazil, Canada, the United States and Guyana, but the potential is “limited” in the short term.
The United States in particular has potential with its shale oil reserves, but it should take months to materialize.
In terms of demand, the IEA revised its forecast downwards and is now expected to increase by 2.1 mbd this year, to a total of 99.7 mbd.
The IEA, created in 1974 to address the oil crisis, indicated that it will publish recommendations this week to reduce demand in the short term.
In some countries, there are proposals to lower the speed limit on roads, reduce the price of public transport or resort to teleworking.
The agency points out, however, that despite the current great challenge for energy markets there are also “opportunities” to accelerate the energy transition to the detriment of oil.
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