The countdown to agony is underway.
The 2022 Winter Games in Beijing await the world in just over three months. They may be the least anticipated Olympics of the 10 held so far in the 21st Century. But then – the Games were a mistake from the day in 2015 when the IOC selected the Chinese capital over Almaty, Kazakhstan.
Those two cities were the last candidates standing after bids from Norway, Germany, Poland and Switzerland suffered political defeats that ended their drives for the Games. Beijing and Almaty -- both considered long shots -- were as surprised as anyone that their bids were the only ones to make the vote at the IOC Session in Kuala Lumpur.
The IOC put on a brave face in the aftermath of the vote, saluting Beijing for bringing the Winter Olympics to a new locale. With its affinity for big numbers, the IOC trumpeted the promise of Beijing 2022 to attract 300 million Chinese to practice Winter Olympic sport.
Playing the sustainability card, Beijing 2022 plans included use of arenas built for the 2008 Summer Games. But billions have meanwhile been spent on constructing ski venues north of the city, along with a high speed railroad line to reach them.
The mountains are a far cry from a winter wonderland however. The region is arid, receiving trace amounts of snow. The solution to fill the pistes: copious amounts of artificial snow that robs the water table of drinking water as well as that needed for agriculture. The IOC and Beijing insist there will be no ill effects from the snowmaking, but the scheme is hardly destined for environmental acclaim.
Within the city’s urban area, chronic issues with air quality remain, especially when temperature inversions trap smog at ground level. February, the month of the Games, is when it’s at the worst.
Besides the crummy air, the IOC can also count on scrutiny next February over claims that China violates human rights. Whether questions over rights of free speech in Hong Kong or the treatment of the Uighur Muslims in Western China, the IOC walls off inconvenient political issues. Not the remit of the IOC is the official line. From the days of the Beijing 2022 candidacy seven years ago to these final months to the Games, critics’ questions have persisted, all while the IOC refuses to change its look-the-other-way policy.
Maybe a Uighur athlete in diaspora could force the issue by seeking a spot on the refugee team organized by the IOC at each Games.
Efforts by the U.S. Congress and other nations to launch boycotts or some other form of protest tied to the Olympics over human rights concerns appear to be headed nowhere. But even without formal declarations from world governments, few leaders are expected to attend the Games. So far, Russia’s Vladimir Putin is the only A-lister to say he’ll be there.
If Beijing 2022 was already a public relations nightmare, the COVID-19 pandemic has crushed whatever appeal might have remained for it as a host.
The government has taken full advantage of the fear of the coronavirus to demand stricter measures for Olympic athletes, officials and media travelling to China. The bubbles meant to limit contact that could spread the virus will be impermeable the entire time. Venturing outside proscribed areas is not permitted until departing. Meals will be provided only in approved hotels and Beijing 2022 facilities. Use of public transit is not allowed. Daily testing will be required. Serious violations will mean a loss of credential and an early exit from China.
In line with the policy followed by Tokyo, foreigners will not be allowed to attend events. A decision on admitting residents of China is still to be made. How these spectators will be ticketed is still an unknown, incredibly with less than three months to go. The prospect of empty venues without the atmosphere of cheering crowds remains as dreary a likelihood as leaden skies in February.
For Olympic sponsors the ban on foreign spectators means unfulfilled activation programs, just as with Tokyo.
For those who will be permitted to fly to Beijing from abroad, air travel will be daunting. The collapse of international air routes in the pandemic has left Beijing nearly unreachable by foreigners. From the U.S., fares on United Airlines to Beijing cost as much as $25,000 business class for a 40-hour trip that connects through Shanghai. That stopover makes that flight a no-go. Beijing 2022 protocols require arrivals on direct flights from abroad.
From Europe, the situation is better with some Air China flights direct to Beijing from Vienna. But one-way tickets are the only ones available, and they start at $4,000 in economy.
Charter air travel may be the solution for NOCs, but for contractors, media and other officials, the travel may be excruciating. And small NOCs may not have the resources or adequate numbers to plan charters.
One last hope for some joy around the Beijing Olympics was a celebratory torch relay, which turned into a damp squib for Tokyo. Beijing will offer a truncated version of the event just days before the Olympics in the locations of venues. It will not be the nationwide event that was expected until the coronavirus struck.
The athletes could be the antidote to this pessimistic view, providing the drama and triumph that goes into competing for medals. But storylines that will compel audiences to tune in to the Games have yet to develop. NHL players will provide some spark for 2022 after missing the 2018 Games in PyeongChang, but China’s hockey prospects are gloomy, as the International Ice Hockey Federation could decide in the coming week to exclude China from the men’s tournament. The team is far from competitive and its status as an automatic qualifier is now shaky.
The IOC has already admitted the mistake of picking Beijing as the host for the 2022 Olympics, although without directly saying so. Soon after the debacle of the 2022 bidding, the IOC upended the process for selecting host cities. Paris and Los Angeles were chosen together to host 2024 and 2028 respectively. Two new permanent IOC commissions now handle potential bidders for the Games, one for summer, the other for winter. It’s a consultative process that is supposed to winnow out contenders unsuited, whether by resources or political situation. The process has led to Brisbane’s selection for the 2032 Summer Games. A host for the 2030 Winter Games is next. Sapporo, Salt Lake City, Barcelona and Vancouver are all in talks with the IOC, but a decision is not expected until after February’s competition. It’s a countdown to agony that can’t end soon enough for the IOC.