This year’s women’s Wimbledon final may come as a surprise to many tennis fans, but recent history has proven it shouldn’t be. The last five Wimbledon finals have produced five separate champions on the women’s side and this year’s will provide the sixth. In addition, 12 of the last 21 major tennis titles have been won by a first-time major champion.
On Saturday, either Tunisia’s Ons Jabeur or Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina will emerge as the 2022 Wimbledon champion. Both women have proven that they are worthy of winning the match, but head-to-head history shows that Jabeur is more likely to win it all having beaten Rybakina in two of the three matches they have played. Jabeur will need to use her crafty style of play to fend off the strength and power Rybakina brings to the court.
Jabeur’s semi-final match against Germany’s Tatjana Maria was won in three sets, marking the 13th three-set victory of the year which tied her with Amanda Anisimova for the most on the 2022 tour. While her path to the final was tough, it was not as difficult as Rybakina’s. The Russian-born was able to knock off Romania’s Simona Halep in the semi-final on Thursday in just two sets, but not all of her matches were as straightforward as that one. After some tight games, she should be mentally prepared to take on Jabeur.
Elena Rybakina may be the underdog on Saturday with a world-ranking of 17 compared to Jabeur’s No. 3, however, Rybakina has proven that she deserves to be in the final match with the power she brings in her forehand and her strongest weapon being her serve. Rybakina has recorded 217 aces on the WTA this year which is more than any other player. That serve will come in handy on a grass court, so Jabeur will have to figure out a way to return and stay in the game.
Based on world ranking alone, on paper it appears as though Jabeur should be the expected winner, but Rybakina cannot be counted out to pull off one last surprise in the final with a massive upset.