The time has come for Mexican citizens to “choose” whether they agree that President Andrés Manuel López Obrador should end his term until 2024, or on the contrary, be revoked a little more than three years after taking office for “loss of confidence.”
This Sunday, April 10, the National Electoral Institute (INE) will organize through 57 thousand 517 boxes installed throughout the country the second Popular Consultation promoted by the Chief Executive, after the “prosecution of former presidents” was held in 2021, which was not binding due to the low participation (8% of the electoral roll).
However, this time the self-called “Fourth Transformation” (Q4) mobilized the entire state apparatus — from the president to governors, federal secretaries and the military — in violation of the electoral ban, to promote such democratic exercise.
At first, it seems logical that this could be the great opportunity for opponents to end the public policies they have criticized throughout their six-year period; however, the initiative is strongly rejected by those who believe that this consultation is not necessary and that it only seeks to reaffirm the image of AMLO, who continues to enjoy “high popular acceptance”.
But how true is it that the president maintains a high approval for citizens?
According to the “poll of polls” by Oraculus, a website specialized in compiling the results of the six main polling houses in the country, although most Mexicans support the AMLO government, it is well below what registered at the beginning of his term of office; in fact, he is no longer the president with the best approval, in the middle of his term of office, of the last 30 years.
According to the latest update, in March 2022, 58% of Mexicans approve of López Obrador, while 40% disapprove of him; the lowest point since he took office (December 2018). The highest was in February 2019, when it scored 81% and 14%, respectively.
That is, it dropped 23 points, which means, in theory, is the most inopportune time to undergo such a consultation.
It is worth mentioning that the average polling houses for this result are: Buendia and Marquez, El Financiero, Enkoll, Parametria, GEA-ISA and Reforma.
In addition, Oraculus gives another graph showing that at this point in the six-year period, former PRI President Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León (1994-2000) had slightly better approval than AMLO, with 59 points.
For his part, he is followed by the panistas Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (2006-2012), with 57%; Vicente Fox Quezada, with 54%; and the PRI player Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018), with 35%.
It is worth mentioning that both Zedillo, Fox and Calderón managed to rebound at the end of their term with approval of 67, 61 and 57 percent, respectively. Not so Peña Nieto, who collapsed even more to 23 percent.
For now, for the Mandate Revocation to be binding, it is necessary that at least 40% of the electorate (about 37.2 million people) vote because AMLO should not continue as president, which is expected to be impossible.
The consultancy firm Integralia, headed by the former president of the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE), Luis Carlos Ugalde, estimated that this Sunday there will be a low turnout of less than 15% of citizens, but “with a resounding victory for AMLO”.
After the Electoral Tribunal of the Federation Judiciary (TEPJF) reports whether the revocation is valid, it will notify the head of the Executive Branch that he will have to leave office.
According to the Constitution, the president of the Chamber of Deputies would take office provisionally, for a month, and immediately convene a meeting of the General Congress, to become the electoral college and appoint the new president.
For a quorum to exist, two-thirds of legislators must attend, a qualified majority, but to elect it, only the vote of the absolute majority (50+1) is required, so the appointment would remain in the hands of Morena and her allies.
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