The French are experiencing a day of reflection this Saturday. Booking hours before choosing. Last midnight, a campaign for the first round of the presidential elections ended. Long for most of the contenders to the Elysee Palace, short for President Emmanuel Macron, who was pulled between the coronavirus pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The two crises, coupled with growing apathy in Western societies, lead tomorrow Sunday to a first round threatened by a first danger: abstention. Estimates for the April 10 vote project a turnout that could be even lower than the lowest on record.
On the other hand, the mistakes or misadventures of the centrist Emmanuel Macron would mark another risk. At least, that's what the polls predict. Never does the far right come so close to presiding over the first judiciary. In particular, Marine Le Pen, the candidate of the National Group, even a candidate with public ties to Vladimir Putin, arrives having significantly narrowed the gap. In his third candidacy, the idea of a victory in the second round no longer seems like a crazy stance.
The gap between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen has also been closing. The outgoing president has lost the advantage gained at the start of the war in Ukraine and sees the intention of voting in his favor decrease (26%, -2 points this week, -4 since mid-March), according to most public polls.
The invasion of Ukraine has been disappearing as a central axis among the French, with purchasing power, inflation and the deterioration of their welfare state being their main concerns. In fact, the war, at the time of the vote (11th place now, after ranking 5th in early March), caused Emmanuel Macron to see his role as leader in France and Europe dilute, at least in dealing with the crisis.
For the first president, the five-year period that ends has been absolutely stormy. Significant and structuring events, such as the “yellow vest” movement, the confinements due to Covid 19, the Islamist assassination of Samuel Paty and finally a war, even when France must preside over the European Council, have been disturbing to the effervescence of a society that seeks solutions to its demands everyday.
Everything comes together so that abstention can be historic. In 2017, during the first round of the presidential elections, 77.8% of French people registered on the electoral lists went to vote. This year, abstention should be higher: the participation rate was estimated, this Friday, at 71%.
If confirmed, the data will be alarming for the Fifth Republic. Less than two out of three young people under the age of 35 (58%) want to go and vote tomorrow Sunday. Even when young people have shown preference for left-wing candidates, their absenteeism could harm the best of these candidates, and on the rise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. One third of the electorate of this left-wing aspirant, a highly fragmented political sector in the country, is made up of young people of this age group (34%). On the contrary, young “macronists” are the most numerous to reveal their intention to vote (81%), followed closely by the other leader of the far right, the former television debater, Eric Zemmour (79%).
For the first “tour”, as the French refer to the first round, the polls mostly coincide in the projections. Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, as in the 2017 presidential elections, will once again occupy the top two positions. Published last Friday, the polls, for example that of Ifop, anticipate a voting intention of 26% for the president and 24% for his far-right opponent. In third place would be, with 17%, the leader of the populist left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Another conclusion, if the polls sound anticipatory, is that the formations, Socialist Party, with Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris at the head, and the Republican Party, Valérie Pécresse, head of the Île-de-France region, would practically disappear, or at least have a performance never seen before.
What will happen in the second round? If the signs of the first match materialize, Macron and Le Pen will reach Sunday, April 24, although Jean-Luc Melenchon insists that this first match is not closed. But for any conclusion, it will be necessary to see how volatile the electorate is.
After several months of campaigning, the movements observed in recent days are raising doubts among voters. More than half of them (57%) believe that nothing is decided and admit that they do not yet know who will win this election. This figure rose 13 points in two weeks, and even 18 points in a month, while most felt that the bet was placed on March 25 (55%).
So, on this basis, while Macron would win the second round with 52% against 48% for Le Pen, the difference is too close to be conclusive, analysts estimate. Five years ago, the head of state scored 66%; his rival, Le Pen, 34%.
While these last few hours are being traveled, before the polling centers open tomorrow, the National Commission for the Control of the Electoral Campaign for the Presidential Election, the CNCCEP and the Electoral Commission, in a press release dated April 4, recalled the ban on publishing and transmitting polls the day before and on the day of the first and second round. In this press release, it is also recalled that the main survey institutes will not conduct “exit the ballot box” polls.
“The Electoral Commission has obtained assurance from the eight major polling institutes (BVA, Elabe, Harris Interactive, Ifop, Ipsos, Kantar, Odoxa, OpinionWay,) that none of them will conduct polls on April 10 'leave the polls', recalls the National Commission for the Control of the Electoral Campaign for the Presidential Election ( CNCCEP).
Finally, during this time of “reserve”, it has been recalled that as of Friday night, candidates for the Elysée are prohibited from disseminating any electoral propaganda, polls or results related to the election, so as not to influence the vote. This rule also applies to the media. The dissemination of surveys during this reservation period is punishable by a fine of up to 75,000 euros.
KEEP READING: