In March 2020, the head of the UN, Antonio Guterres, had been strong and very present at the start of the covid-19 pandemic. Two years later, he seems out of the picture and unarmed in the face of the war unleashed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
“He is very dismayed,” a senior UN official who asked for anonymity confirmed to AFP. Silent in the face of the vast Russian military deployment around the borders of Ukraine, the former Portuguese Prime Minister still said, shortly before the invasion, that he was “convinced” that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, would not cross the line.
A day earlier, on February 23, during an emergency Security Council meeting in New York, the UN Secretary-General pleaded: “Mr. Putin, don't invade.” At the end of this surreal session after which Russian tanks entered Ukraine, he implored without effect: “Mr. Putin, withdraw your troops!”
Already “very pessimistic” at the end of 2021 about the future of the world, Antonio Guterres, who will turn 73 on April 30, is even more so today with a “senseless war” in the heart of the European continent, added the same official.
“Guterres is quite affected, it's his nightmare,” says an ambassador to the agency on condition of anonymity.
According to several diplomats, Guterres hit the nail on the head by quickly denouncing a violation by Russia of the Charter of the United Nations that prohibits “the use of force... against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State.”
Even though the Baltics and Ukraine consider “that it should hit harder, have a much clearer and more offensive language,” another diplomat who asked not to be identified told AFP.
Thanks to its legal argument, in a “historic vote” on March 2, 141 of the 193 member countries condemned Russia at the UN General Assembly.
But several pitfalls persist. The main one is a categorical refusal by Putin of any contact with the UN about the war in Ukraine. Putin was a few metres from Guterres in Beijing during the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics in early February, but the two officials did not speak to each other for an unknown reason.
“Putin is not happy” with Guterres' reaction to the invasion, confided the same ambassador in question.
- Phone style -
Isolated from Moscow, Guterres plunges into discretion at the risk of being criticized. Distressed, a member of his entourage told AFP that he “crosses his fingers” because of an external act to stop the war.
What if the head of the United Nations “woke up before the film ends?” , said ironically Bertrand Badie, professor of international relations in Paris. “Where is Guterres?” , added historian Stephen Schlesinger in New York, in a column for Passblue, a specialized media outlet at the UN. “So far, he has not made any progress in stopping the war,” lamented this expert.
The question lies: Are you considering going to Ukraine when you have only spoken once since the February 24 invasion with President Volodymyr Zelensky?
“The United Nations system as a whole, the Secretariat and those reporting to the Secretary-General are on the front lines,” replied its spokesman, Stéphane Dujarric. It focuses “on diplomacy”, “humanitarian aid” and warns of “the global impact of this crisis” on the world, he told AFP.
Antonio Guterres “is not” an articulator of direct management, but rather his personality is of “a telephone style”, argued the senior official. He also highlighted the difficulty of the UN head in interacting in a conflict involving the world's two major military powers: Russia and the United States.
- New order -
When “it is necessary to renew the threads of dialogue, in order to find a solution, the secretary-general will be able to play a role of mediator,” another ambassador said in a tone of hope.
After the war, “the international order, particularly the UN, will face serious doubts as to whether it is still fit for its purpose,” said Ashish Pradhan of the International Crisis Group expert group.
According to him, “the implications for the Security Council, for example, are likely to be quite serious”.
During a speech on March 10, Antonio Guterres acknowledged that the war in Ukraine was returning the world “to the founding promise of the United Nations Charter: to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.”
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