In the war for Ukraine, expect the unexpected

All wars bring surprises, but the most surprising thing about Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine - and indirectly against the entire democratic West - is how many of the bad surprises, so far, it has been for Putin and how many of the good surprises it has been for Ukraine and its allies around the world.

How is that? Well, I'm pretty sure that when Putin was plotting this war, he assumed that three weeks into the start he would be giving a victory speech in the Ukrainian Parliament, welcoming him back to Mother Russia. He probably also assumed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would be in exile on a Polish Airbnb, that Russian troops would still be removing all the flowers from their tanks thrown by the Ukrainians who welcomed them, and that Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping would be shaking hands over have shown NATO and Sleepy Joe who will set the rules of the international system in the future.

Instead, Ukrainians have given Russians a tutorial on how to fight and die for freedom and self-determination. Putin seems locked in his own germ-free isolation chamber, probably worried that any Russian military man who approaches might point a gun at him. Zelensky will address virtually the United States Congress. And, instead of globalization ending, individuals around the world are using global networks to monitor and influence war in totally unexpected ways. With a few clicks they are sending money to support Ukrainians and with a few more taps telling everyone from McDonald's to Goldman Sachs that they must withdraw from Russia until Russian soldiers withdraw from Ukraine.

Here is another surprise that few saw coming, especially China and Russia. China relied on its own vaccines to combat Covid-19, along with a zero-tolerance policy and immediate quarantine to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Unfortunately, Chinese vaccines seem to be less effective than other vaccines against Covid. And as China's quarantine strategy has left little immunity to previous infections, the virus is now spreading like a fire. As The Times reported on Tuesday: “Tens of millions of residents in Chinese provinces and cities, including Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, are in quarantine amid an outbreak of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. Trips between cities have been cut off, production lines have been stopped and shopping centers have been closed.”

What is that doing? It is killing demand and sinking the price of crude oil, which, after approaching $130 a barrel due to the war in Ukraine, fell below $100 on Tuesday. And which country desperately needs high oil prices because it has too little else to sell to the world to finance its war? Putin's Russia. So China's Covid strategy is hampering Putin's oil pricing strategy, probably hurting him as much as anything the United States is doing. We are all much more connected than we think.

Now that we have passed the initial phase of this war, surprises continue to come. For me, the three biggest are the extraordinary acts of cruelty, courage and kindness that this war is revealing and inspiring.

I never had any illusions that, once Putin launched this war, he would stop to do anything to make sure he could claim to be the “winner.” However, it is impressive to see how quickly he has tied himself up. In the space of three weeks, Putin has gone from saying that he came to liberate Ukraine from its “Nazi” leadership and to return Kiev to its natural home with Russia to crushing its cities and indiscriminately bombing its civilians to break their resistance to their will.

How can a leader go from one day saying that Ukraine and its people are an integral part of the soul and fabric of Russia - with shared languages, culture and religion - to, when rejected, immediately pivoting to turn the place into rubble, without any explanation to Ukrainians, the world or their own people?

It's the kind of ruthless madness you see in a scorned lover or a “crime of honor.” And it is shocking and petrifying to see it manifested by the leader of a superpower with some 6,000 nuclear warheads. There is something about this guy that portends more sinister surprises.

I am always amazed at the courage that seemingly ordinary people manifest in the war; in this case, not only Ukrainians, but also Russians who refuse to buy Putin's lies, knowing that he is turning them into a pariah nation. That is why I am amazed by the impressive courage shown on Monday night by Marina Ovsyannikova, an employee of Russia's Channel 1, a state-run television channel, who broke into a live broadcast of Russia's most-watched news program, shouting: “Stop the war! ” and holding up a sign behind the presenter that said: “Here they are lying to you.” She was questioned and, for the time being, released, probably because Putin feared turning her into a martyr.

Marina Ovsyannikova - remember her name. He dared to tell the tsar that he had no clothes. What a value.

And finally, wars also reveal extraordinary acts of kindness. In this war, some occurred spontaneously and taking advantage of a platform in a way that no one expected: the room exchange site Airbnb. Airbnb executives say they basically woke up in early March to discover that members of their community were spontaneously using their platform in a new and novel way: transforming their booking technology into a home, person-to-person foreign aid system.

In the past two weeks, according to the company, people from 165 countries have booked more than 430,000 nights in Ukrainian houses on Airbnb without intending to use the rooms, but simply to donate money to these Ukrainian hosts, most of whom had not even heard of. Airbnb has temporarily waived all guest and host fees for bookings in Ukraine, so those bookings translated into $17 million that went directly to the hosts. Guests from the United States, Great Britain and Canada are the most booked. Australia, Germany and other European countries complete the top 10.

In addition, as of Sunday, some 36,000 people from 160 countries had signed up through Airbnb's non-profit subsidiary, Airbnb.org, to welcome refugees fleeing Ukraine into their homes.

It is impossible for the gigantic US Agency for International Development, USAID, to have such a rapid impact.

Many of the Ukrainian hosts who have received these donation-reservations have responded in writing to donors, forging new friendships and allowing foreigners to understand the impact of this war much more deeply. There is nothing like communicating personally with people in Ukraine who are hiding in their basement, while explaining to them why you are happy to rent that basement but you never use it. It creates a community of kindness that alone cannot defeat Putin's tanks, but can help reinforce those who are determined to resist them by reminding them that they are not alone: Putin is.

I'm not surprised by any of this. I have always argued that globalization is not just trade. It's about the ability of countries, companies and now, increasingly, individuals to connect and act globally. Humans are programmed to want to connect, and the programming of today's world makes it easier and cheaper to do so every day.

That said, what makes the pleasant surprises of this war so surprising is that they were surprises for those responsible for them. Just a warning, though. There will be more surprises, and not all of them will be pleasant.

(C) The New York Times.-

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