Vallance Says Lockdown Must Stay as U.K. Hospitals Like War Zone

(Bloomberg) -- Boris Johnson’s chief scientific adviser warned coronavirus restrictions must stay in place for the short term, with U.K. case rates “nowhere near where they need to be” and some hospitals “like a war zone.”

Now is “not the time” to consider lifting England’s third national lockdown, Patrick Vallance told Sky News on Wednesday. He also said some restrictions may be needed next winter -- including wearing masks, especially indoors.

Ministers have previously said the lockdown could be eased gradually once about 15 million people who are most vulnerable to the disease have received vaccines, which the government wants done by mid-February. But Vallance said relaxing too early could trigger another spike in infections, and warned the vaccine roll-out “is not going to do the heavy lifting for us at the moment.”

“I don’t see a release of these measures being the sensible thing to do in the short term,” Vallance said, citing Einstein’s definition of insanity of doing the same thing repeatedly but expecting different results. “Every time you release it too quickly you get that upswing.”

The U.K. reported 1,610 deaths on Tuesday, the highest daily toll of the pandemic, along with 33,355 new cases. The rate of vaccinations has also slowed in recent days, though 4.3 million people have received their first dose.

‘Disaster’

Any delay to lifting the lockdown is likely to cause political trouble for Johnson, who faces discontent among lawmakers in his Conservative Party over the damage the measures are doing to the economy. Steve Baker, a senior rank-and-file member of Parliament, warned last week it would be a “disaster” if pandemic restrictions last until spring.

Vallance suggested the government should heed the lessons from the pandemic. The evidence shows “you’ve got to go hard early and broader if you want to get on top of this,” he said. “Waiting and watching doesn’t work.”

He also said “stricter” quarantine measures for travelers last January and February might have helped to prevent the import of the disease, but by March “we had so many cases I don’t think it would have made much difference.”

The government’s top scientist struck an upbeat tone about the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, despite early analysis from Israel suggesting it has a much lower efficacy after the first dose than previously thought. If confirmed, that would raise questions about the U.K.’s strategy to delay a second dose in order to reach more people for their first.

But Vallance pointed to trial data showing the vaccine could be 89% effective after one dose -- from 10 days after the injection. He said that while it “probably won’t be as high as that in practice,” it also won’t be as low as the Israel analysis suggested. Scientists will study data from Israel and the U.K. in the coming weeks, he said.